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Statistical base rates and the prediction of behaviour | Anthony Doob and Rosemary Gartner

Wednesday, November 15, 2017 @ 8:59 AM | By Anthony Doob and Rosemary Gartner

Imagine that a man is charged with killing his wife. There is clear evidence that he had been unfaithful in their marriage. Let us assume that there is known to be a statistically significant relationship between being unfaithful and killing one’s spouse: those who are unfaithful are more likely to kill their spouses than those who are faithful to their spouses.

The defence argues that her death was an accident and that his marital infidelity should not be brought before the jury. Should the evidence of...